PAGCOR Chairman Signals Expected Contraction in Philippine Gaming Revenues for 2026

Statement from Regulatory Leadership

Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation Chairman and CEO Alejandro Tengco outlined projections for the country's gaming sector during remarks delivered to local media outlets in the first week of June 2026, noting that gross gaming revenues face the possibility of dropping as much as 19 percent over the course of the year because of cost pressures tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Those comments placed expected 2026 GGR figures between Php320 billion and Php350 billion, which converts to roughly US$5.20 billion to US$5.69 billion, down from the record Php396.1 billion, or US$6.44 billion, achieved in 2025.

The figures represent a clear reversal after several years of consecutive growth that culminated in the 2025 peak, and Tengco connected the anticipated slowdown directly to external economic factors rather than domestic regulatory shifts. Observers note that the Middle East situation has already begun influencing operational expenses across multiple industries, with gaming operators in the Philippines feeling the effects through higher energy and supply-chain costs that feed into broader financial planning.

Context Behind the Revenue Forecast

Industry data compiled by PAGCOR shows that integrated resort operators and other licensed gaming venues contributed the bulk of the 2025 record, yet Tengco emphasized that sustained regional instability could compress margins enough to pull total collections below previous targets. The projection covers both land-based and online segments, although the statement singled out cost pressures rather than player-volume changes as the primary driver. Because the remarks came directly from the regulatory chief, market participants have begun adjusting internal models to account for the revised range.

Those who track Philippine gaming statistics point out that the 2025 total already incorporated post-pandemic recovery momentum, so any measurable decline in 2026 would mark the first annual contraction since the sector reopened. Tengco's comments did not include specific mitigation measures, leaving operators to evaluate hedging strategies on their own while the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve.

Breakdown of Projected Numbers

Converting the 2026 range into U.S. dollars at prevailing exchange rates yields the US$5.20–5.69 billion band, while the 2025 benchmark sits at US$6.44 billion. The upper end of the new forecast still exceeds pre-2024 levels, yet the percentage drop of up to 19 percent represents the widest single-year variance cited by PAGCOR leadership in recent cycles. Analysts reviewing the statement have noted that even the lower bound of Php320 billion would remain above pandemic-era totals, suggesting the industry retains a structural base despite the external shock.

Cost categories most frequently mentioned in follow-up coverage include imported equipment, fuel for resort operations, and cross-border logistics tied to international gaming suppliers. Tengco did not quantify each component but indicated that cumulative pressure from these areas could compound throughout 2026 if the conflict persists.

Industry Response and Next Steps

Operators licensed under PAGCOR have received the updated outlook and are expected to submit revised business plans within the coming quarter. Some integrated resorts have already begun reviewing energy procurement contracts and exploring localized sourcing options to offset potential increases. The regulatory agency itself continues to monitor monthly GGR submissions, which will provide the first real-time indicators of whether actual collections align with the June 2026 forecast.

Because the statement originated from an oral briefing rather than a formal written report, coverage has centered on Tengco's direct attribution of the decline to Middle East-related cost pressures. Local media outlets that carried the remarks noted the absence of additional policy announcements, underscoring that the warning serves primarily as an informational update for stakeholders.

Conclusion

The June 2026 remarks by PAGCOR's chairman establish a clear numerical framework for expected gaming revenues over the next twelve months, anchored by the Php320–350 billion range and explicitly linked to external conflict dynamics. As monthly data accumulates, both regulators and operators will be able to measure the accuracy of those projections against live performance, providing a factual benchmark for the sector's trajectory through the remainder of the year.